The Structural Shift: Why Cargo Ships are the New "True North" for 2026 Logistics

13.02.2026

The global air cargo market is currently at a crossroads. While 2025 ended with a "super-peak" driven by a surge in AI-related hardware and cross-border e-commerce, the early months of 2026 are signaling a cooling trend. According to recent IATA and industry data, the structural shift toward low-value e-commerce is starting to lose momentum. For companies exposed to large amounts of expensive air capacity, this "fading boom" creates a dangerous imbalance.

In this shifting landscape, the traditional "slow" alternative—ocean freight—is emerging not just as a cost-saving measure, but as the more reliable backbone for long-term supply chain resilience.

Structural Capacity: The Scale Advantage

The most remarkable feature of sea freight in 2026 is its sheer scalability. As air cargo struggles with the return of passenger belly-hold capacity (which is often inconsistent and subject to seasonal flight changes), maritime shipping has entered the year with a record fleet expansion.

  • The Global Fleet: Over 1.5 million TEUs are slated to join the global maritime fleet in 2026. This oversupply, while a challenge for carriers, is a massive win for shippers, ensuring that space is almost always available.

  • Volume Comparison: A single modern container ship can carry over 20,000 TEUs. To move that same volume by air, you would need approximately 2,500 Boeing 747 freighters.

Stability in Volatile Markets

While air freight is theoretically faster, it is significantly more vulnerable to external shocks. In 2026, we are seeing three major factors tipping the scales in favor of ocean freight:

  • Fuel Price Sensitivity: Air cargo is nearly 50 times more carbon-intensive and far more sensitive to jet fuel price spikes. Ocean vessels, utilizing slow-steaming and more stable bunker fuel, offer much more predictable pricing for long-term contracts.

  • Infrastructure Reliability: Major global airports are facing ground handling labor shortages and slot congestion. Ports, while historically prone to congestion, have invested heavily in automated berthing and digital twin simulations for 2026, creating a more "plannable" flow.

  • Regulatory Ease: Stricter safety regulations on lithium batteries and high-tech components have made air clearance a nightmare of paperwork. Maritime shipping, with its established "Dangerous Goods" protocols, offers a smoother regulatory path for modern electronics.